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Data from May 2025. Extracted on 3 June 2025.

Next planned article update: 18 June 2025.

Highlights

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April 2025.

Line chart with five lines showing the development of euro area annual inflation and its four main components monthly during the last two years until May 2025. The four components are: 1) food, alcohol and tobacco, 2) energy, 3) non-energy industrial goods, and 4) services.
Euro area annual inflation and its main components, May 2015 - May 2025 (estimated)
(%)
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr)

The figures presented in this article are early estimates of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).


Euro area annual inflation rate and its main components

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April 2025. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (3.3%, compared with 3.0% in April), followed by services (3.2%, compared with 4.0 in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.6%, stable compared with April) and energy (-3.6%, stable compared with April).

Table on the euro area annual inflation and its main components. The ten rows show the following items: 1) all-items, 2) all-items excluding energy, 3) all-items excluding energy and unprocessed food, 4) all-items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, 5) food, alcohol and tobacco, 6) processed food, alcohol and tobacco, 7) unprocessed food, 8) energy, 9) non-energy industrial goods, and 10) services. Data is shown in eight columns: first, the item group's weight in 2025 in per mil, followed by the euro area annual inflation in the month May 2024 and finally one column per month for the six months from December 2024 to May 2025.
Table 1: Euro area annual inflation and its main components: weights for 2025 and rates for May 2024 and December 2024-May 2025 (estimated)
(%)
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_inw) and (prc_hicp_manr)


Line chart with five lines showing the development of euro area annual inflation and its four main components monthly during the last ten years until May 2025. The four components are: 1) food, alcohol and tobacco, 2) energy, 3) non-energy industrial goods, and 4) services.
Figure 1: Euro area annual inflation and its main components, May 2015 - May 2025 (estimated)
(%)
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr)


Line chart with five lines showing the development of euro area annual inflation and its four main components monthly during the last two years until May 2025. The four components are: 1) food, alcohol and tobacco, 2) energy, 3) non-energy industrial goods, and 4) services.
Figure 2: Euro area annual inflation and its main components, May 2023 - May 2025 (estimated)
(%)
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_manr)


Main components of inflation

Each of the main components contributes in varying degrees to the headline inflation in the euro area. In terms of weights for 2025, 100% for the headline HICP, services is the largest component, accounting for around 45.7% of household final monetary consumption expenditure in the euro area. It is followed by non-energy industrial goods with around 25.6%.

Food, alcohol & tobacco and energy account for 19.3% and 9.4%, respectively. Together, they comprise less than one third of euro area expenditure, but they can have significant impacts on the headline inflation as their prices tend to fluctuate significantly more than the other components.

The weights of the main components of the euro area for 2025 are presented in Figure 3. Table 2 shows their relative weights for 2025.

Pie chart showing the weights of the four main components of the euro area HICP in 2025.
Figure 3: Weights of the main components of the euro area HICP - 2025
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_inw)


Table on the weights of all-items, of the four main components and of 15 of their subcomponents of the euro area HICP in 2025.
Table 2: Weights of the components of the euro area HICP - 2025
Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_inw)

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Database
HICP - monthly data (index) (prc_hicp_midx)
HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)
HICP - monthly data (monthly rate of change) (prc_hicp_mmor)
HICP - item weights (prc_hicp_inw)
HICP - contributions to EA annual inflation (in percentage points) (prc_hicp_ctrb)


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