Introduction
This article points out that the evolution of data for certain main variables between 2016 and 2020 is a methodological break in time series and should not be interpreted as an actual change in the phenomena.
Thresholds set in legislation
The EU legislation applicable to farm statistics sets minimum requirements for the coverage of agricultural holdings (farms). When establishing the national coverage of farms, countries apply various sets of thresholds while respecting the minimum EU legal requirements.
The minimum EU legal requirements for the coverage of farms are different in 2020 and 2016. Consequently, some countries adjusted the national thresholds either to align them to the new legal requirements or to address changes in national coverage needs, while respecting the new minimum EU legal requirements. This change of national thresholds between 2016 and 2020 affects the comparability of the time series data for these 2 years.
For 2016, the minimum EU coverage requirements were set in Article 3 and Annex II of Regulation (EC) No 1166/2008. Countries had to include in the survey populations all farms which comply with at least one of the following physical thresholds:
However, the EU legislation allowed countries to use a threshold above one hectare of utilised agricultural area (UAA) as long as the data collection excludes only the smallest farms which together contribute 2% or less to the total UAA (excluding common land), and 2% or less to the total number of farm livestock units (LSU).
For 2020, the minimum EU coverage requirements were set in Articles 3, 5, 6 and 7 and Annex II of Regulation (EU) 2018/1091. The core structural data should cover in each country the farms and the common land agricultural units that meet at least one of the following physical thresholds:
The countries that strictly observed the legal set of physical thresholds listed in Table 2 are presented in Figure 1 in category 'Legal thresholds'.
Where the thresholds did not cover at least 98% of the total national UAA (excluding kitchen gardens) and at least 98% of the total national LSU, the legislation required countries to extend the frame by establishing lower and/or additional thresholds. The countries in this situation answered 'Yes' to the concept 3.6.1.2 of the 2020 national quality reports and are presented in Figure 1 in the category 'Lower thresholds'. However, these countries had to collect only the core structural data and not also the module data on the smaller farms (in the frame extension), so the module data do not necessarily ensure the 98% minimum UAA and LSU requirements in those countries.
By way of exception, the legislation allowed countries to establish higher physical or corresponding economic thresholds, as long as the thresholds presented in Table 2 cover more than 98% of the national agricultural production (measured by the standard output (SO)) and the higher established thresholds still comply with the 98% minimum UAA and LSU requirements. The countries in this situation answered 'Yes' to the concept 3.6.1.1 of the 2020 national quality reports and are presented in Figure 1 in category 'Higher thresholds'.
Relative evolution of data for core variables between 2016 and 2020
(analysed over the entire farm populations covered in each year and over those subsets of farm populations meeting common size criteria in both years)
Table 3 compares the relative evolution of core data over the entire populations of farms covered in each of the years 2016 and 2020 (referred to as 'original populations') with the relative evolutions of core data over the populations fulfilling size criteria common for 2016 and 2020 (referred to as 'common populations').
The common populations of 2016 and 2020 are obtained by selecting for each year those farms that fulfil at the same time the set of size criteria for 2016 and the set of size criteria for 2020 in the geographical territory covered in both years.
The analysis compares the relative evolution of data between 2016 and 2020 for the following core variables: number of farms (holdings), total UAA, total LSU, labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis (expressed in annual work units (AWU)) and economic size of farms (expressed in standard output (SO)).
Even in the presence of coverage changes, the comparability between 2016 and 2020 of the total UAA and the total LSU is guaranteed at least for the countries using a threshold above 1 hectare in 2016. For those countries, the EU legislation requires in both years the coverage of at least 98% of the total national UAA (excluding common land in 2016 and excluding kitchen gardens in 2020) and of at least 98% of the total national LSU. When coverage changes have a significant impact on data, they usually affect the comparability over time of other variables, such as number of farms, legal type of farms, characteristics related to the holders and managers, labour force, other gainful activities and, in some cases, specific land use and livestock categories, typically kitchen gardens. In this case, trends cannot be directly interpreted from disseminated data over original populations.
Changes in the coverage of farms between 2016 and 2020
This section groups the countries depending on whether the national coverage of farms changed between 2016 and 2020 and, in case the national coverage changed, depending on the impact of this change on the time series.
Countries with no change in the national coverage of farms
Germany, Latvia, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Finland and Sweden did not change the coverage thresholds and the geographical coverage between 2016 and 2020. These countries answered 'There have been no changes' to the concept 15.2.3.1 of the 2020 national quality reports. For these countries, the relative evolutions of data for core variables are presented in Figures 2-6.
As illustrated in Figures 2, 5 and 6, for certain countries and core variables, there are unexpected slight differences between the relative evolutions of data over original populations and over common populations. These slight differences are explained by the fact that while the coverage of farms remained the same in 2016 and 2020, the populations of farms in 2016 and/or in 2020 included a small share of farms that fulfilled the coverage criteria at the design of the data collection but not anymore during the reference year (due to the fluctuations of crop and animal variables between the year of the design of the data collection and the reference year).
Countries with some changes in the coverage of farms but not enough to warrant the designation of a break in series
Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland, Greece, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Poland changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020, but the changes of thresholds did not have a significant impact on the evolution of the number of farms, the total UAA, the total LSU, the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis and the standard output. These countries answered 'There have been some changes but not enough to warrant the designation of a break in series' to the concept 15.2.3.1 of the 2020 national quality reports.
Indeed, Figure 7 illustrates that the relative evolution of the number of farms between 2016 and 2020 is the same or about the same over the original populations and over the common populations, in each of these countries. This is also valid for the relative evolutions of the total UAA, the total LSU, the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis and the standard output.
Bulgaria changed the regional distribution of the data between 2016 and 2020. In 2016, big active farms (above certain size criteria) located in more than one administrative region were reported as separate farms for each region while in 2020, they were reported as single farms, regardless of the size of the farms and the geographical location of their activities - cultivated crops and animals.
Ireland raised some thresholds, removing some small farms from the data.
Greece revised the threshold for 'greenhouses', from 0.05 hectares to 0.01 hectares, in 2020 compared with 2016, to align to Regulation (EU) 2018/1091. The other thresholds are unchanged.
Croatia applied a new threshold for mushrooms in 2020, while in 2016 this variable was non-significant. Consequently, the farms with mushrooms were included in 2020.
Countries with changes in the coverage of farms that are sufficient to warrant the designation of a break in series
Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Austria, Slovenia and Slovakia changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020. The changes of thresholds had a significant impact on the evolution of at least one of the following core variables: number of farms, total UAA, total LSU, labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis and standard output (see Figures 12-16). These countries answered 'There have been sufficient changes to warrant the designation of a break in series' to the concept 15.2.3.1 of the 2020 national quality reports.
In 2020, Czechia lowered the thresholds for fruit trees, berries, nut trees, citrus fruit trees, other permanent crops excluding nurseries, vineyards and olive trees. Moreover, Czechia introduced new thresholds for the following variables: arable land, potatoes, aromatic, medicinal and culinary plants, flowers and ornamental plants, seeds and seedlings, nurseries and cultivated mushrooms. Czechia also changed thresholds related to animal categories, from thresholds expressed in heads for specific animal categories to one global threshold on livestock units. The changes of thresholds had a significant impact on the number of farms. The number of farms on the original population seems to increase by 9% between 2016 and 2020 but if the comparison is done instead on common populations, the number of farms decreases by 5%.
Denmark changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020 to fulfil the requirements of the Regulation (EU) 2018/1091 and introduced new thresholds:
Moreover, the 2020 thresholds include a modified version of the following 2016 thresholds:
The changes of thresholds had a significant impact on the evolution of the number of farms and labour force:
- While on original population the number of farms increased by 6% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the number of farms decreased by 7%.
- While on original population the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis increased by 7% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the same variable increased by 1%.
Estonia changed the thresholds excluding in 2020 the smallest farms. This change of thresholds had a significant impact on the evolutions of the number of farms and labour force:
- While on original population the number of farms decreased by 32% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the number of farms decreased by 11%.
- While on original population the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis decreased by 16% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the same variable decreased just by 8%.
Spain changed the thresholds in 2020 to be in line with Regulation (EU) 2018/1091. The most important changes concern the reduction of the thresholds for permanent crops, especially for olives and vineyards. The changes of thresholds had an impact rather on the number of farms: on , the number of farms decreased by 3% between 2016 and 2020, but on common populations the number of farms decreased by 6%.
France not only changed the thresholds, but also changed the covered territory by newly including the Mayotte region in the 2020 data sent to Eurostat. These two changes between 2016 and 2020 had a significant impact on labour force: while on original population the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis decreased by 6%, the same variable decreased by 10% on common populations.
Italy changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020. The table below summarises the differences between the thresholds applied in 2016 and 2020.
The changes of thresholds had an impact on the evolution of number of farms and labour force:
- While on the original population, the number of farms decreased by 1% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the number of farms decreased by 14%.
- While on the original population, the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis decreased by 6% between 2016 and 2020, when compared on common populations, it decreased by 11%.
For Cyprus, the changes of thresholds concern only the variables related to area.
The 2020 agricultural census covered farms that exceed at least one of the following thresholds:
- 0.2 hectares of utilised agricultural area;
- 0.01 hectares of greenhouses;
- 0.1 hectares of vineyards;
- 0.01 hectares of mushrooms.
The 2016 survey covered farms with at least 0.1 hectares of utilised agricultural area or at least 0.05 hectares of greenhouses.
The change of thresholds had a significant impact on the number of farms and labour force:
- While on the original populations the number of farms decreased by 3% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the same variable increased by 10%.
- While on the original populations the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis increased by 11% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the same variable increased by 15%.
Hungary changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020 and this change had a significant impact on the evolution of the main variables:
- While on the original populations, the number of farms decreased by 46% and the total LSU by 23%, on common populations the number of farms decreased only by 11% and the total LSU by 19%.
- While on the original populations, the total UAA increased by 5% and the standard output increased by 8%, on common populations the increase was by 12% for the UAA and by 18% for the standard output.
- While on the original populations, the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis decreased by 38%, on common populations the same variable decreased by 23%.
Malta included all registered farms in the 2020 census. In contrast, the 2016 sample excluded farms with no standard output. This coverage change had a significant impact especially on the evolutions of number of farms and utilised agricultural area: while on the original populations, between 2016 and 2020, the number of farms decreased by 18% and the total utilised agricultural area by 12%, on common populations the number of farms decreased by 25% and the total utilised agricultural area decreased by 16%.
Austria changed the coverage thresholds between 2016 and 2020. This change had a significant impact on the number of farms: the number of farms decreased by 16% between 2016 and 2020, but on common populations the decrease was just by 9%. Due to raised thresholds concerning utilised agricultural area, very small farms with only permanent grassland and with a very limited market relevance were excluded.
Slovenia changed the coverage of farms between 2016 and 2020. This change had a significant impact on the evolution of number of farms. While on the original populations the number of farms increased by 4% between 2016 and 2020, when assessed on common populations the number of farms decreased by 3%.
Slovakia changed the thresholds between 2016 and 2020:
- In 2016, the threshold for utilised agricultural area (UAA) was 1 hectare without any additional threshold for arable land, but in 2020 the threshold for UAA increased to 5 hectares and a threshold for arable land was set to 2 hectares. Consequently, farms with small areas of permanent grassland were excluded in 2020 compared with 2016.
- The threshold for vineyards decreased from 0.5 hectares in 2016 to 0.1 hectares in 2020; this change significantly increased the number of farms, but slightly affected the area.
- For orchards, changing the threshold from 0.5 hectares in 2016 to 0.3 hectares in 2020 did not influence the area nor the number of farms.
- For vegetables, the threshold in 2016 was lower than in 2020: 0.1 hectares compared with 0.5 hectares. The impact of this threshold change is very difficult to assess because the outdoor area is decreasing and the area in greenhouses is increasing. The threshold for greenhouses in 2016 was higher compared with 2020: 0.1 hectares versus 0.01 hectares. The change to 0.01 hectares in 2020 does not have a big impact on the results, as the area increased due to higher agricultural efficiency.
The change of thresholds had a significant impact on the evolutions of number of farms and labour force:
- While on the original populations the number of farms decreased by 23% between 2016 and 2020, on common populations the number of farms decreased just by 4%.
- Furthermore, on the original populations the labour force directly employed by farms on a regular basis decreased by 12% between 2016 and 2020, but on common populations it decreased by only 7%.
Conclusion
This article informs on the changes in the coverage of farms between 2016 and 2020 farm statistics and points out cases where they significantly affect the comparability of data for main variables between 2016 and 2020.
Source data for tables and graphs
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Publications
- Key figures on the European food chain - 2024 edition (Statistical book)
Methodology
External links
European Commission
- Agriculture and the Green Deal
- DG Agriculture and Rural Development
Legislation
- Regulation (EU) 2018/1091 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 July 2018 on integrated farm statistics and repealing Regulations (EC) No 1166/2008 and (EU) No 1337/2011
- Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/1874 of 29 November 2018 on the data to be provided for 2020 under Regulation (EU) 2018/1091 of the European Parliament and of the Council on integrated farm statistics and repealing Regulations (EC) No 1166/2008 and (EU) No 1337/2011, as regards the list of variables and their description
- Commission Regulation (EC) No 1200/2009 of 30 November 2009 implementing Regulation (EC) No 1166/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council on farm structure surveys and the survey on agricultural production methods, as regards livestock unit coefficients and definitions of the characteristics
- Regulation (EC) No 1166/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 November 2008 on farm structure surveys and the survey on agricultural production methods and repealing Council Regulation (EEC) No 571/88
- Council Regulation (EEC) No 571/88 of 29 February 1988 on the organization of Community surveys on the structure of agricultural holdings between 1988 and 1997
- Summaries of EU Legislation: EU integrated farm statistics